FNUS75 KRIW 200902
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST LAKE...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2159 MDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE INITIAL SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN VERY LOW. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 45 MPH. THIS CAN
OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM.

A MUCH BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING.
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE 2-5 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BY NOON.
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTIER AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING
                    WEST AROUND 10 MPH BY NOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    BY 8 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
                    SOUTHWEST...AND DECREASING TO 5 MPH BY 9 PM.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
                    SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 5 MPH BY 9 PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75+ PERCENT) WITH
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING DOMINATED
                    BY VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE
                    AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE SHOWER AND
                    THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING DOMINATED
                    BY VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130819.LOSTL.01/RIW