FNUS75 KRIW 210956
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST LAKE...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2042 MDT ON AUGUST 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES FOR A GOOD SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TODAY...DUE THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...IF THERE WAS A
DOMINATE WIND DIRECTION IT WOULD BE PROBABLY BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THIS MORNING
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75+ PERCENT) WITH
                    WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT AROUND NOON...INCREASING AFTER 2 PM.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6 MPH...BECOMING DOMINATED
                    BY GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING HIGHLY VARIABLE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING HIGHLY VARIABLE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85+ PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
                    THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE 2-4 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH
                    TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH BY AROUND NOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130820.LOSTL.01/RIW