Joint Fire Science Program
Spot Forecast Verification Project


Here we have all - forecasts that have passed the requirements to be part of the Wildfire forecast analysis. What that entails is the following:
- The forecast must include at least maximum temperature and minimum relative humidity for the afternoon/evening of the day it is issued.
- The forecast must have a National Weather Service or Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) within 50 km and 333 vertical meters that recorded both temperature and relative humidity during the afternoon/evening forecasted.
- The forecast must be issued prior to 12pm local time.
- We must have the grids for the 9 UTC National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecast issued for that day.
Each forecast icon on the map is selectable - a small window will open outlining a breakdown of all of the statistics featured in the histograms above. At the bottom of the window is a link that will open in a new tab to the MesoWest page for the weather station that was used in the verification.

Elevation Difference (meters)
Distance (km)
Forecast Lead Time (minutes)
Month
Spot-Obs (C)
NDFD-Obs (C)
NDFD-Spot (C)
Spot-Obs (%RH)
NDFD-Obs (%RH)
NDFD-Spot (%RH)

Percentages in the above tables that are above and left of the diagonal line in the box refer to those forecasts with values of |NDFD-Spot|<1C or 5% RH. Below and to the right of the diagonal in a box have differences greater than 1C or 5% RH