Course Outline

• COMET NWP module
• NWP Course

• NCEP Ensembles
• Ensemble Verification
• Error growth
• Skill decay
• Temporal variability in skill
• NCEP Model Performance
• NCEP Model Biases

• COMET module
• ECMWF training (technical)
• Targeted Observations
• Targeted Observations
• GDAS

• GFS

• WRF model
• WRF tutorials
• NCAR Real-time WRF

III. Weather forecasting (includes short lectures and a daily forecast lab)

A. Introduction

1. The role of the weather forecaster
2. The modern forecasting process

B. Forecasting Tools

1. Climatology/local effects
2. Observational systems
3. NWP Models
4. MOS
5. Decoding FOUS and MOS

C. Forecasting Statistics

1. Skill Scores
2. Probability Forecasting, Part I
3. Cost/Loss ratios
4. Expressing Probability in a worded forecast

D. Forecasting Techniques

1. Maximum and minimum temperature
2. Precipitation
3. Surface winds
4. Fog and stratus
5. Thunderstorms, supercells and organized convection
6. Microbursts
7. Aircraft icing and turbulence

E. Medium range forecasting

1. Development and decay of major blocking patterns
2. Ensemble predication